MLS week 5

[rolltide]

12-0-6 +18.63 (staked 60.10, +31.0%)
week 1 4-0 +15.70
week 2 5-1 +6.00
week 3 3-2 +6.55
week 4 0-3 -9.62

Looks like a nice midweek double...both midweek and weekend will go in this thread

Santos vs Toronto
- second leg of Concacaf CL semifinal and I give no hope for TFC. They head to the heat and altitude of Torreon to face the hottest team in Mexico and should get hammered. They played a very physical style in first leg and were able to hold for 1-1 draw as Santos had a player sent off with 20' left then another in the post-match brawl which, IMHO, only angered the Mexicans. MLS broke their losing streak last fall winning twice in Mexico but it had never happened before and one of those wins was against basically an u-20 version of Pumas. MLS and NASL clubs are now 2-3-30 when playing down there and Seattle, one of the best MLS clubs, just lost 6-1 in Santos after winning at home. They play the early semifinal match and temps expected to be around 88-90 degrees, the crowd is intimidating, and the Santos club is on a roll. They've won 5 straight domestic matches including 3-1 at Toluca this weekend and at home are 5-1-0 L6 only drawing another top team, Monterrey. At home in Concacaf CL play they've only lost one match to Cruz Azul (another Mex club) and are 15-0-0 otherwise with a goal differential of 57/13 basically winning by an average of 4-1 each game. TFC not one of MLS' better teams and are now winless in 4 games. They played at Pumas last September and lost 4-0. Full marks for their win in LA but the Galaxy are having massive issues with defending so that becomes less impressive every day. This one shouldn't be close...

Real Salt Lake vs Montreal
- Expansion team playing away in altitude to perhaps the best team in MLS after getting hit for 4 straight goals against them in New York last week. RSL coming off a great road win scoring in 89th then 93rd minute to win 3-2 at Portland. This team was unbeaten in 19 straight at home vs the East from mid 2009 to mid 2011 (16-3-0) and, as you know, lost their last home game 1-0 to Chivas USA. Well, they haven't lost 2 straight in Rio Tinto ever and haven't lost 2 in a row in Salt Lake since October 2007. Montreal now 0-1-3 and 0-0-2 away so typical expansion start to a season. They've got a big match coming home vs a beatable rival, Toronto, on Saturday and could get drubbed in this one. Montreal found holes in NY's defense early on Saturday but RSL have a great back 4 so won't find anything on Wednesday. Montreal likely to play much like CUSA did, 10 men in defense, but I think RSL are more prepared now to break that down especially with improved fitness of key offensive contributors.

Santos/RSL 5u -130 (bwin actually -112 for those with accounts)

 

[STACKSONDECK]

when are these games?

 

[STACKSONDECK]

oh midweek

 

[BurrowsTheGreat]

The TFC game should be heated, I'm excited to watch

 

[JohnMolson]

Surprising 1st half with TFC netting 2 :think2:

 

[rolltide]

Surprising 1st half with TFC netting 2 :think2:

luckily in modern mathematics 6 is always greater than 2 :think:

Wed results:
Santos 6-2
RSL 1-0
double = +5u

13-0-6 +23.63 (staked 66.60, +35.5%)

there is a chance I'll have a bet on FCD/NE but will be posted no earlier than an hour before KO as it depends on lineups. Otherwise, back this weekend

 

[gobucks]

Nice win......With the weekend match with Colorado that wasn't the top RSL line-up, but they got the job done. I liked Montreal's high pressure...I think they will be a bet on team later in the year if they can get organized in the back.

 

[rolltide]

Not sure i like anything about Montreal. I really don't like teams defending with that high of an offside trap....reminds me of Blackpool 2010/11 except they don't transfer the turnovers into good counter chances. Then again the alternate (lay back with 10) is horrendous to watch. RSL must have had 3-4 times alone on keeper simply breaking the trap. Gotta love how the impact played in final 20' though...probably should have been down a couple by 70th but at just 1-0 they turned it up and nearly equalized. big chance for first win this weekend

 

[rolltide]

Montreal vs Toronto
- If anyone has followed me here for years you'll know my motto "bet shit, get shit" so I fully expect this to lose
Still there are many reasons to think that the Impact will register their first win in MLS on Saturday afternoon. It is setting up as just TOO perfect of a situation to get their long, long, longtime rivals at home for the first time at this level, so I've gotta throw some benjamins on this game. Of course teams have met a ton over the past 40 years with Montreal posting a solid 25-6-10 record though TFC have bested them more times than not in the Canadian Championships these past few years. Anyway, both teams will be going hard for win as they're a combined 0-1-7 4/18 in league play and while TFC have two winnable home games coming up Montreal have two unlikely wins as they play away until April 28. So, if they don't win this match you'd circle 4/28 vs Portland as the next possible win but maybe then 6/27 beyond that as they face some really good teams at home in between. This won't be lost on Marsch and that played into some of his squad rotation lasat night, to keep players fresh for Saturday. TFC meanwhile went with best XI in Santos other than Danny K who was suspended and Torsten Frings who is injured. I knew they were dead when half the team rushed to get a drink of water before the game's first corner kick in 4th minute and, sure enough, they wilted after a 2-1 lead and allowed 5 straight goals. Playing in 90 degree heat and altitude and travelling 2500 miles to get hammered is not a great way to prepare for a noon Saturday start against a really motivated team, even if they are an expansion squad. Other than the Seattle game TFC have used the same XI throughout so they are completely gassed as this is match #7 in just 24 days and 4th in 10. TFC in MLS road games aren't too strong as evidenced by their current "1 win in 18" streak. There's really not a lot of good stuff I can say about Montreal though. They're on pace to allow 75 goals which would shatter the MLS record and they've given up a penalty in 3 straight matches showing just how bad this defense is. The create some chances but don't finish at all and as I mentioned above playing that high defensive line can be disastrous if not done well.

Still if you look at their stats after 5 games you wouldn't expect Montreal to be 0-1-4:

Shots Taken = Montreal 70, Opponent 72
Shots on Goal = Montreal 26, Opponent 30
Corners = Montreal 22, Opponent 20

the one glaring negative is 79 fouls against and just 57 for which means they are giving up 16 fouls/match which is 4 more per game then the next worse team. Maybe some positive last night when they only were called for 12 fouls?....still quite a bit but 25% less than their average.

Anyway they were really unluckly to draw vs Chicago 1-1 in only other home game as they hit the right post in stoppage time. I doubt they'll approach the 58K attendance as seen vs The Fire but I expect a really excited Montreal team and a pretty depressed, humiliated, and exhausted Toronto squad. Speaking of stats TFC have put just 7 SOG in 3 league matches, allowing 16. Koevermans will be the best player on the field and TFC have advantage in basically every sector except keeper but I'll go with the emotion and back the Impact to grab first league win. I never lay juice with bad teams and certainly not laying -150 for the pk line so just a small bet on the outright win.

Montreal 2.5u +140 betcris

 

[gremlin]

Great call.... for some reason my book never posted a line for this game (All other MLS matches were posted...)

Any other MLS thoughts this week?

 

[rolltide]

Saturday result:
Montreal 2-1 +3.5u

14-0-6 +27.13 (staked 69.10, +39.3%)

strong lean on sj u2.25 but not playing it for any official stakes. same with portland home win